Understanding the Monty Hall Problem – BetterExplained | monty hall game
TheMontyHallproblem[1]isacounter-intuitivestatisticspuzzle:Thereare3doors,behindwhicharetwogoatsandacar.Youpickadoor(callitdoorA).You’rehopingforthecarofcourse.MontyHall,thegameshowhost,examinestheotherdoors(B&C)andopensonewithagoat.(Ifbothdoorshavegoats,hepicksrandomly.)Here’sthegame:DoyoustickwithdoorA(originalguess)orswitchtotheunopeneddoor?Doesitmatter?Surprisingly,theoddsaren’t50-50.Ifyouswitchdoorsyou’llwin2/3ofthetime!Todaylet’sgetanintuitionforwhyasimplegamecouldbesobaffling.Theg...
The Monty Hall problem[1] is a counter-intuitive statistics puzzle:
There are 3 doors, behind which are two goats and a car. You pick a door (call it door A). You’re hoping for the car of course. Monty Hall, the game show host, examines the other doors (B & C) and opens one with a goat. (If both doors have goats, he picks randomly.)Here’s the game: Do you stick with door A (original guess) or switch to the unopened door? Does it matter?
Surprisingly, the odds aren’t 50-50. If you switch doors you’ll win 2/3 of the time!
Today let’s get an intuition for why a simple game could be so baffling. The game is really about re-evaluating your decisions as new information emerges.
Play the gameYou’re probably muttering that two doors mean it’s a 50-50 chance. Ok bub, let’s play the game:
Try playing the game 50 times, using a “pick and hold” strategy. Just pick door 1 (or 2, or 3) and keep clicking. Click click click. Look at your percent...